SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
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SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
I added an experimental functionality in SLDB to allow players to generate their TrueSkill history graphs.
You just need to say "!skillGraph <modShortName>" to the bot named SLDB on Spring lobby server.
<modShortName> can take following values:
 BA (Balanced Annihilation)
 EVO (EvolutionRTS)
 KP (Kernel Panic)
 NOTA
 S1944 (Spring: 1944)
 TA (Tech Annihilation)
 XTA
 ZK (ZeroK)
For example "!skillGraph BA" gives this result for me.
The blue line is what is called "estimated skill" in SLDB ("mu" in TrueSkill papers), and the blue area represents the range where the real skill has 99.99% chance to be (mu + 3*sigma). The bottom limit of this area is what is called "trusted skill" in SLDB ("conservative skill" in TrueSkill papers).
This could be integrated in Spring replay site if needed?
You just need to say "!skillGraph <modShortName>" to the bot named SLDB on Spring lobby server.
<modShortName> can take following values:
 BA (Balanced Annihilation)
 EVO (EvolutionRTS)
 KP (Kernel Panic)
 NOTA
 S1944 (Spring: 1944)
 TA (Tech Annihilation)
 XTA
 ZK (ZeroK)
For example "!skillGraph BA" gives this result for me.
The blue line is what is called "estimated skill" in SLDB ("mu" in TrueSkill papers), and the blue area represents the range where the real skill has 99.99% chance to be (mu + 3*sigma). The bottom limit of this area is what is called "trusted skill" in SLDB ("conservative skill" in TrueSkill papers).
This could be integrated in Spring replay site if needed?
Last edited by bibim on 05 Nov 2014, 18:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
That would be very nice.bibim wrote: This could be integrated in Spring replay site if needed?
Except 3 standard deviations account for a certainty of 99.73 %: From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9 ... 399.7_rule:bibim wrote: represents the range where the real skill has 99.99% chance to be (mu + 3*sigma).
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
True, I mixed up with 4 * sigma which is 99.99%.Jools wrote:Except 3 standard deviations account for a certainty of 99.73 %
It doesn't change anything in the reasoning though, it's still very very likely that the real skill is in this range.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
It's a very cool thing, I would see it natural to have those graphs on the personal pages of the replay site, hope it's not that hard to include there.
Are those the exact values or the public ones by the way? I assume they are the exact ones. If they are exact ones, then it overrides the privacy mode, but to be honest, the privacy is not that well guarded anyway unless the community is large, as you can work out a good approximation of skill by some permutations of say 2v2 matches.
Are those the exact values or the public ones by the way? I assume they are the exact ones. If they are exact ones, then it overrides the privacy mode, but to be honest, the privacy is not that well guarded anyway unless the community is large, as you can work out a good approximation of skill by some permutations of say 2v2 matches.
Last edited by Jools on 22 Oct 2014, 17:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
These values are the exact ones, as they are supposed to be requested by the player and shown to him only, so for me it doesn't break privacy mode.
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 very_bad_soldier
 Posts: 1371
 Joined: 20 Feb 2007, 01:10

 Posts: 25
 Joined: 19 Oct 2011, 01:33
Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Very nice!
I'd love to make those graphs available on the replays site.
For those with privacy_mode=0 (disabled) they could be public and for everybody else private (when logged in, you can see only your own graph).
Bibim: PM me the details about the API please. I'll be traveling for the next two weeks though, so don't expect me to answer ^.^
I'd love to make those graphs available on the replays site.
For those with privacy_mode=0 (disabled) they could be public and for everybody else private (when logged in, you can see only your own graph).
Bibim: PM me the details about the API please. I'll be traveling for the next two weeks though, so don't expect me to answer ^.^
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 Silentwings
 Moderator
 Posts: 3613
 Joined: 25 Oct 2008, 00:23
Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Bibim made the graphs accessible through the SLDB API (actually a while ago... I'm a little slow...). Thank you! The replays site has those on each players page now :)
For example: http://replays.springrts.com/player/72351/
Loading of graphs is done as late as possible (for example no real thumbs) to lower the load on SLDB and loading time of the web pages... could be remedied with some JSvoodoo... Images are cached for 30d on the webserver. Privacy is protected. So you either have to login to see your TS history or disable the privacy to make your graphs public.
... there are "thumbs" for graphs that do not actually exist  only those game/match_typecombinations that are listed in "Win/loss" really have graphs... I think I'll move those buttons to a fourth column in the Ratingtable above it...
For example: http://replays.springrts.com/player/72351/
Loading of graphs is done as late as possible (for example no real thumbs) to lower the load on SLDB and loading time of the web pages... could be remedied with some JSvoodoo... Images are cached for 30d on the webserver. Privacy is protected. So you either have to login to see your TS history or disable the privacy to make your graphs public.
... there are "thumbs" for graphs that do not actually exist  only those game/match_typecombinations that are listed in "Win/loss" really have graphs... I think I'll move those buttons to a fourth column in the Ratingtable above it...
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Cool. Is there a list of all players who have allowed others to view their stats?
Might be interessting to compare graphs.
So far all graphs I've seen start with "narrowing down" and then remain fairly constant. Maybe because it is all longtime players whose skill does not change anymore.
Would be interessting to see graph of some new player who started at beginning of logging, if there is an upwards trend.
Maybe played games could be shown in skill graph too? (As dots on the timeline?)
Otherwise it is hard to tell if a skillgraph remained constant because skill stayed the same or if simply no games were played in that time.
Might be interessting to compare graphs.
So far all graphs I've seen start with "narrowing down" and then remain fairly constant. Maybe because it is all longtime players whose skill does not change anymore.
Would be interessting to see graph of some new player who started at beginning of logging, if there is an upwards trend.
Maybe played games could be shown in skill graph too? (As dots on the timeline?)
Otherwise it is hard to tell if a skillgraph remained constant because skill stayed the same or if simply no games were played in that time.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
If no game is played during a month for a given player and a given mod/game, his uncertainty increases and his estimated skill slightly decreases due to inactivity penalties:knorke wrote:it is hard to tell if a skillgraph remained constant because skill stayed the same or if simply no games were played in that time.
You can see these inactivity penalties in action at the end of my skill graph for example, in the original post of this thread. So if a skill graph remains constant, it's because the estimated skill stayed the same.bibim wrote:the inactivity penalties are applied each month to all highskill with low uncertainty players who almost didn't play in the month. These penalties are quite light however, because the goal is not to really penalize them but actualy modelize their lost of skill and the increase of their skill uncertainty. Players recovering from inactivity periods should be able to recover their original rating quite fast thanks to this uncertainty increase. This system also prevents old inactive players to stay in the top part of the leaderboards, while not playing anymore.
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 Silentwings
 Moderator
 Posts: 3613
 Joined: 25 Oct 2008, 00:23
Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Probably what you are seeing here is the initial period where TS quickly learns what an (already developed) players skill should be. If you pick a graph of someone who started playing after TS was introduced, and who then subsequently improved slowly to their "developed" level, you'll likely see a different pattern.So far all graphs I've seen start with "narrowing down" and then remain fairly constant.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
It follows from some basic universal principle that variation decreases when sample amount increases.
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Yes, I understood that already. Hence my question was:
"Would be interessting to see graph of some new player who started at beginning of logging, if there is an upwards trend."
I want to see a graph that does not follow this appearently common pattern:
Either byy someone posting his own graph, or through a list of "public" players or maybe anonym example with playername removed.
"Would be interessting to see graph of some new player who started at beginning of logging, if there is an upwards trend."
I want to see a graph that does not follow this appearently common pattern:
Either byy someone posting his own graph, or through a list of "public" players or maybe anonym example with playername removed.
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 Silentwings
 Moderator
 Posts: 3613
 Joined: 25 Oct 2008, 00:23
Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
You can find many such examples using replay site; look for newish players. E.g. "BA Team" graph for http://replays.springrts.com/player/948465/ (I hope he doesn't mind being an example).
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Something strange happens.
I used to be 2nd at team ffa hof even i have not played for > 6 months. Then last month I played one game and I went down 8th....
Is it a bug or is it due to the fact that abma erase 50 of my account ? http://springrts.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32724
I used to be 2nd at team ffa hof even i have not played for > 6 months. Then last month I played one game and I went down 8th....
Is it a bug or is it due to the fact that abma erase 50 of my account ? http://springrts.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32724
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Re: SLDB: Personal TrueSkill history graphs
Here are the details of your TeamFFA ranks for current year, can you be more specific about what you find strange?albator wrote:Something strange happens.
I used to be 2nd at team ffa hof even i have not played for > 6 months. Then last month I played one game and I went down 8th....
Code: Select all
jan: 2nd
feb: 3rd
mar: 3rd
apr: 3rd
may: 4th (6 inactivity penalties)
jun: 4th (+3 inactivity penalties)
jul: 5th (+8 inactivity penalties)
aug: 5th (+8 inactivity penalties)
sep: 6th (+8 inactivity penalties)
oct: 6th (+4 inactivity penalties)
nov: 8th
dec: 8th
SLDB uses its own account database, so uberserver accounts deletion has no effect on SLDB data such as TrueSkill rankings.albator wrote:Is it a bug or is it due to the fact that abma erase 50 of my account ? http://springrts.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=32724
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